Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 0.007303 0.008223 0.009229 0.010413 0.011772 0.013286 0.015106
2024-11-03 0.005829 0.007070 0.008546 0.010442 0.012828 0.015749 0.019629
2024-11-10 0.005198 0.006625 0.008422 0.010872 0.014159 0.018464 0.024610
2024-11-17 0.004536 0.006008 0.007944 0.010711 0.014618 0.020021 0.028205
2024-11-24 0.004098 0.005610 0.007676 0.010752 0.015296 0.021893 0.032436
2024-12-01 0.003669 0.005165 0.007277 0.010533 0.015535 0.023112 0.035811
2024-12-08 0.003434 0.004964 0.007192 0.010746 0.016418 0.025373 0.041106
2024-12-15 0.003175 0.004700 0.006979 0.010728 0.016919 0.027068 0.045685
2024-12-22 0.002849 0.004300 0.006520 0.010266 0.016634 0.027415 0.047941
2024-12-29 0.002654 0.004086 0.006328 0.010211 0.017010 0.028911 0.052466
2025-01-05 0.002592 0.004076 0.006457 0.010698 0.018369 0.032291 0.061055
2025-01-12 0.002373 0.003790 0.006109 0.010326 0.018144 0.032737 0.063901
2025-01-19 0.002189 0.003556 0.005837 0.010081 0.018160 0.033702 0.068117
2025-01-26 0.002069 0.003421 0.005725 0.010117 0.018717 0.035810 0.075178
2025-02-02 0.002020 0.003403 0.005814 0.010531 0.020055 0.039667 0.086831
2025-02-09 0.001890 0.003233 0.005616 0.010376 0.020225 0.041099 0.093108
2025-02-16 0.001800 0.003127 0.005524 0.010415 0.020799 0.043476 0.102113
2025-02-23 0.001685 0.002966 0.005317 0.010204 0.020809 0.044583 0.108101
2025-03-02 0.001632 0.002916 0.005315 0.010409 0.021752 0.047962 0.120729
2025-03-09 0.001557 0.002817 0.005212 0.010392 0.022192 0.050210 0.130730
2025-03-16 0.001439 0.002630 0.004921 0.009947 0.021596 0.049841 0.133218
2025-03-23 0.001372 0.002539 0.004814 0.009893 0.021916 0.051816 0.143017
2025-03-30 0.001364 0.002561 0.004939 0.010363 0.023550 0.057424 0.165184